A new flashpoint is emerging in Latin America as President Nicolás Maduro orders the deployment of more than 25,000 troops and militia forces in response to heightened United States (US) military manoeuvres in the Caribbean. The move signals a shift from economic sanctions to the spectre of military coercion aimed at regime change in Venezuela.
The US, citing an intensified campaign against Latin American drug cartels, has moved two additional Navy ships into the southern Caribbean. While Washington frames the operation as counter-narcotics, Venezuelan officials and regional observers see it as a pretext for direct intervention.
At the same time, China has raised the stakes by launching a $1 billion floating oil facility, operated by China Concord Resources Corp., which aims to pump 60,000 barrels a day from western Venezuela’s oilfields.
Anchored in Lake Maracaibo— long targeted by US sanctions— the platform underscores Beijing’s growing role in Venezuela’s economic survival.
This combination of sanctions, economic disruption and US naval power has prompted Caracas to activate its Rapid Reaction Unit—a mix of soldiers, police and Bolivarian militias—tasked with responding to “any incursion with iron and fire.”
“They arrive with all the iron wherever they need to go,” Maduro declared in a televised address, flanked by senior commanders.
From ‘Maximum Pressure’ to Military Posturing
Analysts argue that Washington’s strategy mirrors a campaign of coercion: showing force rather than engaging in open conflict.
This represents a departure from 2019, when the US backed opposition figure Juan Guaidó through constitutional means. That approach faltered as domestic support for Guaidó faded, and U.S. recognition of him declined.
“It seems the ‘maximum pressure’ policy we saw in 2019 is making a comeback, but this time with a real threat,” says Ana Rodríguez Brazón, a Caracas-based journalist and international relations expert. “With dialogue exhausted, the strategy now appears to be cornering the regime militarily.”
Rodríguez also points to the recent explosion of a Venezuelan vessel in the Caribbean—denied by Caracas but deeply felt by coastal communities—as a potential signal of escalating tensions.
China’s Oil Gamble and the Monroe Doctrine Redux
Beijing’s involvement through the new oil platform is viewed as both strategic and symbolic, providing Venezuela with lifeline revenues while deepening China’s footprint in the Western Hemisphere.
“This move is symbolic and strategic,” notes Aparaajita Pandey, Assistant Professor at the Amity Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies. “The US sees Chinese expansion in what it considers its backyard as a challenge to its waning regional authority. Reviving the rhetoric of the Monroe Doctrine seems inevitable now.”
Pandey argues that Washington is blending diplomacy with a show of force, not only to safeguard energy and influence in the region but also to distract from internal political discord.
“Labelling cartels like Tren de Aragua as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and ramping up naval assets suggests a willingness to use force not merely for security but as a political tool,” she says.
Militia vs Marines: A Calculated Gamble?
Maduro has responded by mobilising 25,000 troops, reinforcing defensive positions in the Atlantic, and deploying drones and warships. Yet questions remain about the Venezuelan military’s ability to resist without direct backing from allies such as Russia, China or Iran.
“The armed forces in general do not support Nicolás’ government,” Rodríguez observes. “That’s why he leans on the Bolivarian Militia—more loyal, more ideological, but far less equipped.”
Even so, symbolic resistance could complicate any U.S. military operation. Venezuela’s dense urban terrain, shifting political loyalties and asymmetrical tactics could turn intervention into a costly entanglement.
Regime Change in Disguise?
While Washington insists it is not pursuing regime change, the signals suggest otherwise. The Trump administration has doubled the reward for Maduro’s capture to $50 million, accusing him of narco-terrorism. The military build-up, harsher rhetoric and moves against Venezuela’s oil sector paint a broader picture.
“This is not an isolated incident,” Pandey cautions. “It must be seen in the context of the US trying to reassert its declining influence in a multipolar world. Venezuela is simply the current theatre.”
With the US election season intensifying and oil prices fluctuating amid global uncertainty, the geopolitical chessboard in the Caribbean is shifting rapidly—and dangerously.