Tectonic Shift: Why Western Nations Are Readying to Recognise Palestine, and Where Does It Leave Israel

In a major geopolitical shift, four influential nations — Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Singapore — have either announced or signaled intent to recognise the State of Palestine by September 2025, marking a historic juncture in global diplomacy amid the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The renewed push for Palestinian statehood recognition comes as the war in Gaza, triggered by the October 7 Hamas attacks, continues to devastate civilian life.

The Gaza conflict began after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack that resulted in the deaths of 1,219 Israelis and other nationals. Israel retaliated against Hamas a few days later. Of the 251 Israelis taken hostage by Hamas, 50 are still being held captive in Gaza. According to Gaza’s health ministry, over 60,000 Palestinians, mostly civilians, have died in the Israeli military response.

What is the tipping point amid the Israel-Hamas conflict?

Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly warned of starvation, lack of medical aid, and the deliberate blockade of relief supplies, placing the region on the brink of collapse. This crisis has galvanised international leaders to re-evaluate their positions on Palestine and Israel’s conduct in the conflict.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently warned that the two-state solution is “farther than ever before.”

Why is Canada leading the reform-backed recognition of Palestine?

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will recognise a Palestinian state at the 80th UN General Assembly, citing commitments from President Mahmoud Abbas to reform the Palestinian Authority, hold elections in 2026 with no role for Hamas, reject militarisation, and uphold Israel’s right to exist.

Carney emphasised that “lasting peace for Israel also requires a viable and stable Palestinian state,” positioning recognition not as opposition to Israel but as part of a balanced strategy for peace.

How are the UK and France tying Palestine recognition to conditions on Israel?

The UK’s Keir Starmer and France’s Emmanuel Macron have framed their support for Palestinian statehood around Israeli accountability. Starmer warned that Britain will proceed with recognition unless Israel ends the war in Gaza, lifts aid restrictions, abandons plans to annex the West Bank, and commits to the two-state peace process.

France, co-chairing a three-day UN conference with Saudi Arabia, said there is “no alternative” to a two-state solution. The conference, boycotted by the US and Israel, served as a platform for 125 nations to support Palestinian statehood and post-war reconstruction plans.

Why Singapore signals a “principled” Palestine recognition?

Though cautious, Singapore expressed readiness to recognise Palestine “in principle,” provided it supports peace and a negotiated solution. The city-state highlighted Abbas’s June 9 letter renouncing terrorism and welcomed PA-led reforms.

Singapore has also pledged humanitarian aid, policing training, and leadership development to help Palestinians build effective governance.

How are Israel and the US pushing back against Palestine recognition?

Israel’s Foreign Ministry denounced these moves as a “reward to Hamas,” accusing the international community of undermining ceasefire efforts.

The US, too, criticised the joint sanctions imposed on Israeli ministers by Canada, the UK, Norway, New Zealand, and Australia. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the recognition efforts “unproductive and ill-timed.”

What are the implications for geopolitics?

The coordinated shift by several middle and major powers signals a growing frustration with the Israeli government’s actions and a desire to reassert international law and humanitarian norms. With over 142 UN member states already recognising Palestine, the momentum may pressure the US and other holdouts to reconsider their stance.

Crucially, these developments are not just about diplomatic symbolism. They could reshape peace negotiations, strengthen Palestinian legitimacy, and open doors for Arab-Israeli normalisation, but only if Israel and Hamas step back from maximalist positions.

The next two months may prove to be a defining moment for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, one where statehood for Palestine moves from aspiration to recognition, transforming the region’s political landscape.