Trump Drops Quad Visit Amid Modi Rift As India Emerges Ukraine’s Top Diesel Supplier
Prime Minister Modi front and centre, with President Trump in the shadows, echoing the diplomatic friction as India propels Ukraine’s diesel demand, challenging Washington’s tariffs and energy strategy. Image courtesy: RNA
US-India relations are facing an unusual moment of tension and irony. Even as US President Donald Trump has reportedly dropped his plans to visit India for the Quad Summit later this year, New Delhi has quietly surged to the top of Ukraine’s diesel suppliers, with much of that fuel refined from discounted Russian crude — the very trade that has drawn Washington’s ire.
What’s the Trump-Modi rift over Pakistan and Tariffs?
According to a detailed report in The New York Times, Trump, who was once keen to attend the Quad leaders’ meeting in New Delhi this November, now has “no longer plans” to make the trip. Sources cited by the paper said the shift stems from a deterioration in his personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, once hailed as a cornerstone of US-India ties.
The fallout reportedly began after Trump’s repeated claims that he had “solved” the May India-Pakistan conflict, assertions India flatly denied. Modi grew frustrated with Trump’s interventions, culminating in a tense 35-minute phone call on June 17, during which the US President once again credited himself with brokering peace and even suggested that Modi nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Indian officials pushed back firmly. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri publicly clarified that India never sought mediation, that the ceasefire was negotiated directly with Pakistan, and that no discussion with Trump touched on trade deals or Nobel prizes. According to the NYT, Modi bristled at the suggestion, marking the point at which their relationship “unraveled.”
The Trump administration has compounded the strain with a fresh wave of tariffs, including a 25 percent levy on Indian oil-linked imports, framed as punishment for New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian crude. Analysts quoted by the NYT argue that India is being “uniquely targeted” and that the tariffs are less about squeezing Moscow than expressing Trump’s frustration with Modi.
How has India became Ukraine’s diesel lifeline?
Even as this diplomatic chill deepens, new data highlight a twist of irony. Ukraine, locked in a grinding war with Russia, has in July 2025 received more diesel from India than from any other single supplier.
Figures from Kyiv-based oil analytics firm NaftoRynok show that India supplied 83,000 tonnes of diesel to Ukraine last month, averaging 2,700 tonnes a day. That accounted for 15.5 percent of Kyiv’s total imports — up dramatically from just 1.9 percent in July 2024. The surge makes July one of India’s highest monthly contributions this year, comparable only to April’s 15.9 percent share.
The irony lies in the supply chain. Much of this Indian diesel is refined from discounted Russian crude, which New Delhi has continued to buy despite Western sanctions. Washington has castigated India for “funding Russia’s war machine” through such purchases. Yet the same refined product is now powering Ukraine’s war economy.
According to NaftoRynok, Indian-origin diesel reaches Ukraine mainly through Romania’s Danube ports and via Turkey’s Marmara Ereğlisi terminal. Between January and July, India accounted for 10.2 percent of Ukraine’s total diesel imports, up from just under 2 percent a year earlier, a fivefold increase.
How Europe is still key, but India climbs fast?
While India topped Ukraine’s July imports by share, other suppliers remain significant. Slovakia, Greece, and Turkey each delivered larger physical volumes, while Polish and Lithuanian supplies together made up about 20 percent. Swedish refiner Preem, routing through Poland and Denmark, contributed 4 percent.
Still, India’s sudden ascent underscores its growing role in Europe’s wartime energy map, even as Washington raises tariffs and Trump distances himself politically.
How has this led to a diplomatic and strategic crossroads?
The dual developments — Trump backing away from Modi and India fueling Ukraine — spotlight the complexity of today’s geopolitics. The Quad Summit in November, expected to bring together leaders from India, Australia, Japan, and the US, will now take place without Trump, raising questions about Washington’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific framework.
At the same time, India’s rise as a critical supplier to Ukraine, despite sourcing from Russian crude, reveals how fluid the global energy market has become. For Modi, it is both a diplomatic tightrope and a demonstration of India’s leverage. For Trump, it is a reminder that punishing tariffs and testy phone calls may not yield the loyalty Washington once assumed.
