Will China Invade Taiwan by 2027? Here’s What Former US Pacific Command Chief Said

Former United States Pacific Command head Dennis Blair has dismissed alarmist timelines suggesting that China could be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, arguing instead that the combined capabilities of Taiwan and the US are likely to remain superior in the coming years.

Speaking during a recent visit to Taipei, Blair also emphasised that deterrence must continue to be strengthened to avoid any miscalculation by Beijing.

What did Blair say about the 2027 invasion timeline?

Blair was speaking after participating in tabletop exercises hosted by the Taipei School of Economics and Political Science Foundation last week. He described the notion of a 2027 invasion as more symbolic than substantive.

“2027 to me is just one date. And as I look at it, that will be a date at which both Taiwanese and American capability will be actually higher relative to PLA capabilities,” Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) cited Blair as saying.

The former admiral referred to the Pentagon’s China Military Power Report, which notes that 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it should be seen more as a “slogan” than a concrete operational deadline.

How does Blair assess the current military balance in the Taiwan Strait?

Blair, who led US Pacific Command from 1999 to 2002, said that while China’s military power has steadily grown since 2002, so has Taiwan’s defensive preparedness. He noted that this progress, combined with tighter US-Taiwan coordination, continues to ensure a credible deterrence posture.

He added, “I have seen steady improvements in the combat readiness of Taiwan’s military and the joint response capabilities of the US and Taiwan in the face of Chinese aggression.”

Blair highlighted that China is investing heavily in nuclear deterrence, space systems, long-range logistics, and aircraft carriers, but those capabilities are not specialized for a Taiwan invasion.

“If China truly had a firm deadline for building invasion capabilities, the PLA’s development trajectory would look very different,” he said.

He predicted that if Taiwan continues investing in unmanned vehicles for coastal and land combat, and the US maintains progress in hypersonic weapons and advanced technologies, “the balance in 2027 will still be favorable for the US and Taiwan.”

What are Blair’s views on deterrence, Trump’s foreign policy, and US support?

On the broader US-China rivalry, Blair observed that a strong competitive mindset now dominates US strategic thinking.

“Many Americans now believe China is determined to push the US out of East Asia, and even the global stage,” he said.

Regarding deterrence, Blair pointed to the importance of keeping the perceived cost of aggression high for Beijing.

“Effective deterrence hinges on convincing China that any attempt at aggression would likely fail,” he said, adding that the Chinese Communist Party’s legitimacy is tied to its narrative of unification with Taiwan. A failed invasion, therefore, could “seriously undermine the party’s grip on power.”

Asked whether a second Donald Trump presidency would alter Indo-Pacific engagement, Blair said the current administration continues to build deterrence measures and intensify pressure on Beijing.

On whether Taiwan could withstand a Chinese assault alone, Blair acknowledged Taiwan could hold out for some time but not indefinitely. However, he said such a scenario was unlikely.

“Taiwan should not assume it would be left without support from the US and its allies,” he concluded.