Rafale Back In Focus: India, France Accelerate Talks As IAF Squadrons Hit Alarming Lows Ahead Of Macron Visit

India and France have stepped up discussions on a follow-on acquisition of Rafale fighter jets as the Indian Air Force (IAF) grapples with a sharp decline in its combat squadron strength, defence sources said.

The talks are expected to gain momentum in the run-up to French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India next month, signalling a potential breakthrough in one of India’s most critical defence procurement decisions.

How many more Rafales are being considered by the IAF?

The IAF has strongly advocated a government-to-government (G2G) deal with France to procure additional Rafales as an interim solution under the long-delayed Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme, which envisages the induction of 114 modern combat aircraft.

While the final decision will follow consideration by the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), Air Force planners have projected an urgent operational requirement to arrest the ongoing depletion of frontline squadrons.

Why is this Rafale acquisition critical for the IAF?

The IAF’s fighter strength has fallen to just 29 squadrons, well below the authorised level of 42.5 squadrons deemed necessary to tackle a potential two-front challenge from China and Pakistan.

The situation worsened after the retirement of the MiG-21 fleet last year, a shortfall that was starkly underscored during Operation Sindoor, reinforcing concerns over the Air Force’s ability to sustain prolonged air operations.

What is the MRFA programme of the IAF?

The MRFA project, initiated seven to eight years ago and estimated to cost over ₹1.2 lakh crore, has been stalled by procedural delays and shifting priorities.

In this backdrop, the Rafale — already proven in IAF service — is increasingly viewed as the fastest way to plug critical capability gaps. India’s recent contract for 24 Rafale-M aircraft for the Navy also provides a pricing benchmark for a larger follow-on order.

Would the expanded Rafale deal mean producing it in India?

Any expanded Rafale deal is expected to feature a strong ‘Make in India’ component. Tata Advanced Systems Limited, in partnership with Dassault Aviation, is setting up a Rafale fuselage manufacturing facility in Hyderabad, with production slated to begin by FY28.

Alongside planned engine manufacturing and an MRO hub at Jewar, nearly 60% of the aircraft’s manufacturing value could eventually be localised.

Delays in the induction of the LCA Tejas Mk1A have further strained the IAF, increasing reliance on interim solutions such as additional Rafales.

Against this backdrop of operational urgency, industrial readiness and high-level political engagement, Rafale-related decisions are likely to figure prominently during President Macron’s visit, even as final approvals remain pending with the DAC and the Cabinet Committee on Security.