India, Pakistan Nuclear Conflict Possible Over Terror Threats: US Intelligence Report To Congress
Rising tensions between India and Pakistan have once again drawn global concern, with fresh warnings that terror-triggered escalation could push the nuclear-armed neighbours towards a dangerous crisis. Image Courtesy: RNA
The United States has assessed that a nuclear conflict between neighbours India and Pakistan was a possibility over terror threats.
In a report to the American Senate on Wednesday (March 18, 2026), the US Intelligence Community’s Annual Threat Assessment said the bilateral relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours in South Asia were at risk of degenerating into a nuclear conflict.
The 34-page report noted that, though New Delhi and Islamabad do not seek an open war, there existed conditions for terrorist actors to act as catalysts for a nuclear crisis in the region.
“India-Pakistan relations remain a risk for nuclear conflict given past conflicts where these two nuclear states squared off, creating the danger of escalation,” the report said.
“The terrorist attack last year near Pahalgam, in the Indian Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, demonstrated the dangers of terrorist attacks sparking conflict,” it said.
The report also claimed it was US President Donald Trump’s intervention that stopped the two South Asian neighbours from entering a nuclear war in May 2025 when India launched its military strikes on Pakistan under Operation Sindoor to avenge the terror attacks on tourists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam in April that year.
“President Trump’s intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions, and we assess that neither country seeks to return to open conflict, but that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create catalysts for crises,” it said.
The US assessment also claimed ISIS-K (Islamic State – Khorasan Province) maintained a foothold and aspired to conduct external attacks in South Asia, but Afghanistan’s Taliban regime was improving its security services and had taken aggressive action against the terror group.
“The Taliban has conducted extensive raids against ISIS-K targets, probably thwarted some attacks, and driven some ISIS-K leaders to relocate to neighbouring countries,” it said.
The US report also warned that Pakistan was developing sophisticated missile capabilities, including Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, and could threaten even American soil, much beyond its immediate South Asian neighbourhood.
“Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban have been tense, with intermittent cross-border clashes, as Islamabad has become increasingly frustrated with anti-Pakistan terrorist groups’ presence in Afghanistan, while Islamabad faces growing terrorist violence,” it said.
It referred to the February 26 attacks by Afghanistan on Pakistani military positions on their shared border in retaliation for the earlier Pakistan airstrikes on the Afghan territories. Pakistan responded with its own bombings in Afghanistan soon after, including in Kabul.
“The fighting has continued since it erupted. Pakistan’s army chief warned this month that lasting peace requires the Taliban to sever ties with militants targeting Pakistan. The Taliban’s public posture has been to call for dialogue, but it has denied harbouring anti-Pakistani militants,” the document said.
